Pair #3166

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-JDAY

Will Jason Day win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1254077

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jason Day wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-JDAY

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Jason Day make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 281

YES ask: 0.8600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.6900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jason Day has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:03:17Z

Reasoning: If Jason Day wins the Houston Open, he must have made the cut to compete in the final rounds and win. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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