Pair #3163

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JDAY

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2694

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

Rules

If Jason Day wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-JDAY

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Jason Day make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 281

YES ask: 0.8600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.6900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jason Day has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:03:17Z

Reasoning: Winning a major and making the cut at the Houston Open are independent events at different tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -67.28% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8500
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -71.59% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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