Pair #3162

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JDAY

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2460

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jason Day wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-JDAY

Will Jason Day lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5274

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jason Day is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:03:17Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 and leading Round 1 at the Houston Open are independent events. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -4.28% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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