Pair #3161

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-JDAY

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Jason Day finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8938

YES ask: 0.9400
NO ask: 0.2300
Last: 0.9500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jason Day finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JDAY

Will Jason Day win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 5591033

YES ask: 0.0330
NO ask: 0.9690
Last: 0.0330

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jason Day wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:03:17Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters and finishing top 20 at the Houston Open are independent events at different tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.2630
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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