Pair #316

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-NYI

Will New York Islanders win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: New York Islanders
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 558209

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If the New York Islanders win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPRES-26-NYI

Will the New York Islanders win the Pro Hockey President's Trophy?

Series: KXNHLPRES
Entity: New York Islanders
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 358

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If New York Islanders wins the Pro Hockey President's Trophy, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:06:27Z

Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup does not require winning the President's Trophy (best regular season record), and winning the President's Trophy does not guarantee winning the Cup. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -18.27% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -22.46% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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