Pair #3159

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-JDAY

Will Jason Day lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5274

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jason Day is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JDAY

Will Jason Day win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 5591033

YES ask: 0.0330
NO ask: 0.9690
Last: 0.0330

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jason Day wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:03:17Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters and leading Round 1 of the Houston Open are entirely independent events at different tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0230
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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