Pair #3158

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-SBUR

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Sam Burns finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11337

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-SBUR

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Sam Burns finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 14498

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:03:17Z

Reasoning: If Sam Burns finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 20 as well. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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