Pair #3157

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-SBUR

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Sam Burns finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11128

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-SBUR

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Sam Burns finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 14498

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:03:00Z

Reasoning: A top 10 finish necessarily means a top 20 finish. The reverse does not hold — finishing 11th–20th is top 20 but not top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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