Pair #3154

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-SBUR

Will Sam Burns lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 58679

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-SBUR

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Sam Burns finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11128

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:03:00Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not logically necessitate a top 10 final finish — a player can lead R1 and then fall down the leaderboard. And a top 10 final finish does not require leading after R1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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