Pair #3151

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SBUR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8708

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0900

Rules

If Sam Burns wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-SBUR

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Sam Burns finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11337

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sam Burns finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:03:00Z

Reasoning: Winning a major and finishing top 5 at the Houston Open are entirely separate events. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.74% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -2.54% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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