Pair #3150

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SBUR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 9126

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0900

Rules

If Sam Burns wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-SBUR

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Sam Burns finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11128

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sam Burns finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:03:00Z

Reasoning: Winning a major and finishing top 10 at the Houston Open are entirely separate events. The Houston Open is not a major, so neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -1.79% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -6.10% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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