Pair #3148

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-SBUR

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Sam Burns finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11128

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-SBUR

Will Sam Burns win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 10261431

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:03:00Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters and finishing top 10 at the Houston Open are entirely separate events at different tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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