Pair #3135

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-STHE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5897

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-STHE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Sahith Theegala finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 13041

YES ask: 0.3000
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.3000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:02:43Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA major is a completely different tournament from the Houston Open. No logical connection in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -35.23% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2900
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -39.51% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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