Pair #3129

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-CGOT

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 20302

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-CGOT

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 51797

YES ask: 0.6900
NO ask: 0.3600
Last: 0.7300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:02:22Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 5 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — a top-20 finish could be positions 6–20.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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