Pair #3123

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-CGOT

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4867

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-CGOT

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 20302

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:02:22Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors and finishing top 5 in the Houston Open are independent events at different tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -57.43% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1400
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -61.64% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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