Pair #312

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLEAST-26-NJ

Eastern Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLEAST
Entity: New Jersey Devils
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 15860

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If New Jersey Devils wins the Eastern Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLMETROPOLITAN-26-NJ

Will New Jersey Devils win the NHL Metropolitan Division?

Series: KXNHLMETROPOLITAN
Entity: New Jersey Devils
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 6601

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the New Jersey Devils win the 2025-2026 NHL Metropolitan Division, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:06:27Z

Reasoning: A wild card team can win the Eastern Conference Finals without winning their division, and winning the Metropolitan Division does not guarantee winning the ECF. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.40% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 30
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -15.62% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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