Pair #3102

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MWLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5466

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0800

Rules

If Min Woo Lee wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-MLEE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Min Woo Lee make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3676

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.2100
Last: 0.8900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Min Woo Lee has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:01:48Z

Reasoning: Winning a major and making the cut at the Houston Open are logically independent events in different tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -66.54% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9000
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -70.82% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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