Pair #3101

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MWLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5466

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-TECHO26-MLEE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Min Woo Lee finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-03-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1339

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:01:48Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA major in 2026 has no logical connection to finishing top 10 in Round 1 of the Houston Open, a separate non-major event.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -22.46% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1600
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -26.74% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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