Pair #31

Antecedent (implies)

KXFOMEN-26-ALC

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Carlos Alcaraz
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 49256

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.4500

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Rules

If Carlos Alcaraz wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (implied)

KXMOMEN-26-ALC

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Carlos Alcaraz
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 1872

YES ask: 0.4000
NO ask: 0.6400
Last: 0.4000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Carlos Alcaraz wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:51:04Z

Reasoning: These are two separate tournaments. Winning one does not imply winning the other in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 9.06% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: 85
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: +4.84% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-03-17T09:49:55Z

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