Pair #3096

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-SLOW

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Shane Lowry finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1154

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-SLOW

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Shane Lowry finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3126

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:01:28Z

Reasoning: If Lowry finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 10 (top 5 is a subset of top 10). The reverse does not hold — a top 10 finish could be positions 6-10, which is not top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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