Pair #3095

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-SLOW

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Shane Lowry make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2097

YES ask: 0.7700
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.7700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-SLOW

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Shane Lowry finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 16268

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.7700
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: low
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:01:28Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish — a player can make the cut but finish outside the top 20. A top 20 finish typically requires making the cut, but in a field where many players make the cut, finishing top 20 does logically require having made the cut. However, the reverse (make cut → top 20) is not necessary. So top 20 implies make cut, but the cut line position could allow more than 20 players through. Finishing top 20 does imply making the cut (you cannot finish 20th without surviving the cut), but confidence is high for that direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.7500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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