Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-SLOW
Will Shane Lowry lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6619
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Shane Lowry is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-SLOW
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Shane Lowry finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 16268
YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.7700
Last: 0.2700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:01:28Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish — a player could collapse over subsequent rounds and finish outside the top 20. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.2500
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A