Pair #3090

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-SLOW

Will Shane Lowry lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6619

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-SLOW

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Shane Lowry finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3126

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:01:28Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 finish — the player could fall down the leaderboard over remaining rounds. A top 10 finish does not require leading after R1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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