Pair #3082

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SLOW

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3008

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-SLOW

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Shane Lowry finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Shane Lowry
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1154

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Shane Lowry finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:01:07Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 and finishing top 5 at the Houston Open are separate events. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.84% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -2.47% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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