Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-NJ
Will New Jersey Devils win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: New Jersey Devils
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 104142
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the New Jersey Devils win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLEAST-26-NJ
Eastern Conference Finals Winner?
Series: KXNHLEAST
Entity: New Jersey Devils
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 15860
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If New Jersey Devils wins the Eastern Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:06:27Z
Reasoning: To win the Stanley Cup Finals, the New Jersey Devils must have won the Eastern Conference Finals (to reach the Finals). So winning the Stanley Cup implies winning the Eastern Conference Finals. The reverse does not hold — winning the ECF does not guarantee winning the Cup.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-18.27%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0100
Days to maturity:
18
Hurdle yield:
4.19%
Excess yield:
-22.46%
BELOW HURDLE