Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-TFIN
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12133
YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tony Finau finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-TFIN
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 13948
YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tony Finau finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:00:53Z
Reasoning: If Tony Finau finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 10 (top 5 is a subset of top 10). The reverse does not hold — finishing top 10 does not guarantee top 5.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.1900
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A