Pair #3068

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TFIN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4586

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-TFIN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12133

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:00:53Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA Major in 2026 has no logical connection to finishing top 5 at the Houston Open. These are separate tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -4.92% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -9.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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