Pair #3065

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-BGRI

Will Ben Griffin win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 230432

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-BGRI

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Ben Griffin finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5229

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:00:53Z

Reasoning: If Ben Griffin wins the Houston Open, he finishes 1st, which is necessarily within the top 20. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 does not mean winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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