Pair #3063

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BGRI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2523

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-BGRI

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Ben Griffin finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5229

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:00:53Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA Major in 2026 has no logical connection to finishing top 20 at the Houston Open. These are completely separate tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -18.90% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1300
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -23.18% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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