Pair #3062

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BGRI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2523

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-BGRI

Will Ben Griffin lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3993

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:00:53Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA Major in 2026 has no logical connection to leading Round 1 of the Houston Open. These are completely different tournaments and events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.73% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -2.55% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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