Antecedent (if this happens)
KXATPMATCH-26MAR25TIASIN-SIN
Will Jannik Sinner win the Tiafoe vs Sinner : Quarterfinal match?
Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-03-25T20:00:00Z
Volume: 47169
YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jannik Sinner wins the Tiafoe vs Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXFOMEN-26-SIN
Will Jannik Sinner win the French Open?
Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 1165209
YES ask: 0.7500
NO ask: 0.2600
Last: 0.7500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jannik Sinner wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:00:34Z
Reasoning: Winning the French Open does not require winning a Miami Open quarterfinal, and winning a Miami Open quarterfinal does not imply winning the French Open. These are completely separate tournaments.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.8200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A