Pair #3058

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-JSIN

Will Jannik Sinner win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 63442

YES ask: 0.7800
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR25TIASIN-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win the Tiafoe vs Sinner : Quarterfinal match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-03-25T20:00:00Z
Volume: 47169

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jannik Sinner wins the Tiafoe vs Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:00:34Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam does not require winning a Miami Open quarterfinal, and winning a Miami Open quarterfinal does not imply winning a Grand Slam. These are unrelated events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -27.09% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1900
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -31.40% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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