Pair #3055

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNCAAHOCKEY-26-MSU

Will Michigan State win the College Hockey National Championship?

Series: KXNCAAHOCKEY
Entity: Michigan State
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 9552

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michigan State is the 2026 College Hockey National Championship winner, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNCAAHOCKEYGAME-26MAR261330CONMSU-MSU

Connecticut vs Michigan State Winner?

Series: KXNCAAHOCKEYGAME
Entity: Michigan State
Expiration: 2026-03-26T20:30:00Z
Volume: 4429

YES ask: 0.7200
NO ask: 0.3300
Last: 0.7000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michigan State is the winner (inclusive of overtime but excluding shootouts) of the Connecticut vs Michigan State college hockey game scheduled for Mar 26, 2026 at 1:30 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:00:34Z

Reasoning: To win the national championship, Michigan State must win all games on their path, including this game against Connecticut (assuming this is a tournament game). If MSU wins the championship, they must have won this game. However, this depends on the tournament structure — if this is a bracket game and MSU is in it, winning the title necessitates winning this game. Confidence is medium because we'd need to confirm this is a required path game in the tournament bracket.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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