Pair #3051

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-JPEG

Will Jessica Pegula win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3587

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jessica Pegula wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR25RYBPEG-PEG

Will Jessica Pegula win the Rybakina vs Pegula : Quarterfinal match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-03-25T17:00:00Z
Volume: 18814

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 0.6800
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jessica Pegula wins the Rybakina vs Pegula professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:00:34Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam does not require winning a Miami Open quarterfinal, and winning a Miami Open quarterfinal does not imply winning a Grand Slam. These are unrelated events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -32.70% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2600
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -36.98% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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