Pair #3050

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOWOMEN-26-PEG

Will Jessica Pegula win the French Open?

Series: KXFOWOMEN
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 97143

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jessica Pegula wins the 2026 Women's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26MAR25RYBPEG-PEG

Will Jessica Pegula win the Rybakina vs Pegula : Quarterfinal match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-03-25T17:00:00Z
Volume: 18814

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 0.6800
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jessica Pegula wins the Rybakina vs Pegula professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Miami Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-25T08:00:34Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open does not require winning a Miami Open quarterfinal match, and winning a Miami Open quarterfinal match does not imply winning the French Open. These are completely separate tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3100
Days to maturity: 9
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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