Pair #3049

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-CRUS

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Casey Russell make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Casey Russell
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 24792

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Casey Russell has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-CRUS

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Casey Russell finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Casey Russell
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 608

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Casey Russell finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:08:51Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top-20 finish (player could finish outside top 20 after the cut). Finishing top 20 implies making the cut, but the reverse is not logically necessary in the direction asked. Note: top-20 finish DOES imply making the cut, so the implication runs from top-20 to make-cut, but that direction is B→A here. However, finishing top 20 necessarily means making the cut (high confidence in that direction).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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