Pair #304

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLWEST-26-VGK

Western Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLWEST
Entity: Vegas Golden Knights
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 779102

YES ask: 0.9000
NO ask: 0.1100
Last: 0.9000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Vegas Golden Knights wins the Western Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPLAYOFF-26-VGK

Will the Vegas Golden Knights be one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers?

Series: KXNHLPLAYOFF
Entity: Vegas Golden Knights
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 24764

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Vegas Golden Knights are one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:06:10Z

Reasoning: Winning the Western Conference Finals requires having made the playoffs. Making the playoffs does not imply winning the Conference Finals.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -70.73% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1100
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -74.95% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T15:32:06Z

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