Pair #3038

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-JKNA

Will Jake Knapp lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jake Knapp
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 43447

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jake Knapp is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-JKNA

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Jake Knapp finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jake Knapp
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 56501

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jake Knapp finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:08:35Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 final finish (could miss cut or fade). Finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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