Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-JKNA
Will Jake Knapp lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jake Knapp
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 43447
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jake Knapp is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-JKNA
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Jake Knapp finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jake Knapp
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 56501
YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jake Knapp finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:08:35Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 final finish (could miss cut or fade). Finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 1.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.3300
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A