Pair #3032

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-JPOS

Will J.T. Poston lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: J.T. Poston
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 654

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.T. Poston is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-JPOS

Will J.T. Poston win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: J.T. Poston
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4521

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.T. Poston wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:08:35Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament does not require leading after Round 1 (can win from behind). Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee winning the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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