Pair #3021

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-MPAV

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Matthieu Pavon finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Matthieu Pavon
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4409

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthieu Pavon finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MPAV

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Matthieu Pavon finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matthieu Pavon
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2498

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthieu Pavon finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:08:19Z

Reasoning: If Pavon finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse is not true — top 20 does not guarantee top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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