Pair #3015

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-DLIP

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will David Lipsky make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: David Lipsky
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 843

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Lipsky has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-DLIP

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will David Lipsky finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: David Lipsky
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3783

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Lipsky finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:08:03Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish — a player can make the cut and finish outside the top 20. A top 20 finish implies making the cut (B→A), but that direction is not listed as the implication here. In this pair as stated, neither A→B nor B→A holds cleanly in both directions, though top 20 finishing does logically imply making the cut.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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