Pair #3012

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-DLIP

Will David Lipsky lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: David Lipsky
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17710

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Lipsky is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-DLIP

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will David Lipsky finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: David Lipsky
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2302

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Lipsky finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:08:03Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 finish, and a top 10 finish does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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