Pair #3003

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-ATOS

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 14041

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-ATOS

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 38691

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:07:44Z

Reasoning: Finishing in the top 10 necessarily means finishing in the top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 does not require finishing top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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