Pair #3002

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-ATOS

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Alejandro Tosti make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4567

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-ATOS

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 38691

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:07:44Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish. Finishing top 20 implies making the cut, but that is the B→A direction, and finishing top 20 is not the labeled Event A. Neither direction as labeled (A→B or B→A expressed as A implies B) holds universally: making cut ≠ top 20, and top 20 does imply making cut but A is make-cut here so no clean implication from A.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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