Pair #3001

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-ATOS

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Alejandro Tosti make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4567

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alejandro Tosti has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-ATOS

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 14041

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alejandro Tosti finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:07:44Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish (could finish 30th). Finishing top 10 implies making the cut, but that direction is B→A, and top 10 is the antecedent for making-cut — however the question is about A and B as labeled. Top 10 finish does imply making the cut, but making the cut does not imply top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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