Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-VGK
Will Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: Vegas Golden Knights
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4658673
YES ask: 0.4200
NO ask: 0.6000
Last: 0.4000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLPACIFIC-26-VGK
Will Vegas Golden Knights win the NHL Pacific Division?
Series: KXNHLPACIFIC
Entity: Vegas Golden Knights
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 60018
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025-2026 NHL Pacific Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:06:10Z
Reasoning: A team can win the Stanley Cup without winning their division (e.g., entering as a wild card). And winning the division does not imply winning the Cup.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-99.67%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.6000
Days to maturity:
30
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
-103.89%
BELOW HURDLE