Pair #300

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-VGK

Will Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Vegas Golden Knights
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4658673

YES ask: 0.4200
NO ask: 0.6000
Last: 0.4000

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPACIFIC-26-VGK

Will Vegas Golden Knights win the NHL Pacific Division?

Series: KXNHLPACIFIC
Entity: Vegas Golden Knights
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 60018

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025-2026 NHL Pacific Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:06:10Z

Reasoning: A team can win the Stanley Cup without winning their division (e.g., entering as a wild card). And winning the division does not imply winning the Cup.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -99.67% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6000
Days to maturity: 30
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -103.89% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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