Pair #30

Antecedent (implies)

KXATP1RANK-26JUN30-CALC

Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Jun 30, 2026?

Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Carlos Alcaraz
Expiration: 2026-06-30T16:00:00Z
Volume: 1291

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.7400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Carlos Alcaraz is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Jun 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (implied)

KXFOMEN-26-ALC

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Carlos Alcaraz
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 49256

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.4500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Carlos Alcaraz wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:51:04Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open (held in late May/early June) would boost Alcaraz's ranking but doesn't guarantee #1 on June 30, and being #1 on June 30 doesn't require winning the French Open. No logical implication.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -72.52% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4500
Days to maturity: 105
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -76.72% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-03-17T10:16:40Z

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