Pair #3

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOWOMEN-26-KEY

Will Madison Keys win the French Open?

Series: KXFOWOMEN
Entity: Madison Keys
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 58253

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

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Rules

If Madison Keys wins the 2026 Women's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-MKEY

Will Madison Keys win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Madison Keys
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1372

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Madison Keys wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:50:30Z

Reasoning: If Keys wins the French Open, she has won a Grand Slam. The reverse does not hold — she could win a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -98.84% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1300
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -103.06% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-16T23:07:07Z

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