Pair #2999

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-ATOS

Will Alejandro Tosti lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 76501

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-ATOS

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Alejandro Tosti finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 14041

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alejandro Tosti finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:07:44Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 finish, and finishing top 10 does not require leading after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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