Pair #2998

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-ATOS

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Alejandro Tosti make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4567

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alejandro Tosti has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-ATOS

Will Alejandro Tosti lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Alejandro Tosti
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 76501

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alejandro Tosti is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:07:44Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could collapse in Round 2 and miss the cut). Making the cut does not require leading after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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